Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Southwest Utah Economic Update

Our most recently release of nonfarm employment data shows that most counties in southwestern Utah have moved into the job growth category--a sign that these counties have joined the expansion phase of the business cycle. Read on for the particulars for each county in the region. . .


Beaver County--Lately, Beaver County's nonfarm employment numbers have been dominated by whether or not there is any wind farm construction in progress. At the peak of construction, employment rises by roughly 10 percent only to crash by a similar amount once the construction is over. First quarter 2011 figures reflect the current round of wind farm construction. In March 2011, the county showed a 9-percent year-to-year increase in employment translating into more than 180 new jobs. While most of these new positions can be categorized in construction, leisure/hospitality services also created a large number of new jobs. Without the recent mine shutdown and a decrease in public sector positions, Beaver County's employment gains would have risen even higher.

Interestingly, even with this explosive employment growth, Beaver County's jobless rate (7.6 percent) remained slightly higher than the state average in May 2011. However, it has dropped fairly dramatically since Jan 2010. Not surprisingly, initial claims for unemployment insurance have stabilized at a very low level.

Beaver County total construction permitting for the first four months of 2011 shows a health 22-percent increase and more homes were permitted this year than last. Finally, in the first quarter of 2011, gross taxable sales managed its fifth straight quarter of expanding sales totals.

Click here for Beaver County's Current Economic Snapshot.

Garfield County--Garfield County was the only county in the region to experience job losses during the first quarter of 2011. Between March 2010 and March 2011 the county lost almost 70 jobs--a decrease of 3.5 percent. This loss would prove more worrisome if Garfield County hadn't experienced dramatic employment gains during 2010. The current employment loss is focused primarily in information and the public sector. Leisure/hospitality services--the county's bread-and-butter jobs--continued to expand.

As usual, Garfield County's unemployment rate registers as one of the highest in the state--11.4 percent in May 2011. This high "seasonally adjusted" rate reflects the seasonal nature of the county's many tourism jobs where many individuals experience a term of joblessness each year. Also as usual, initial claims for unemployment insurance are almost nonexistent during the summer months.

In Garfield County, total permitted construction values for January-April 2011 are down dramatically compared to the same time period in 2010, so don't expect a rush of new construction jobs. As elsewhere, home permits have yet to improve. On the other hand, the county's first quarter 2010 increase in gross taxable sales marked the third straight month of improvement.

Click here for Garfield County's Current Economic Snapshot.

Iron County--When you are a regional economist, you often "root" for the economies of the counties you track. So, I'm happy to announce that in the first quarter of 2011, Iron County joined the ranks of the job growers. This marks the first year-over nonfarm employment growth Iron County has generated since July 2007! Not surprisingly, the growth isn't exactly robust--0.8 percent for March 2011, but is certainly headed in the right direction. Professional/business services made the largest job gains--a typical occurrence as an economy starts to recover. This industry includes "temp" industries. Often when businesses gear up they use temporary employees as an initial step before making more permanent hires. Other job-gaining industries included government, mining, wholesale trade, and private education/health/social services. Still, a significant number of industries continued to show job declines. Largest losses occurred in construction, retail trade, and financial activities.

Not surprisingly, the county's jobless rate (8.9 percent in May 2011) remains higher than the state average. But it is slowly trending downward. Moreover, initial claims for unemployment insurance continued to decline--a good sign that the labor market pain continues to ease.

As in most areas of the state, construction permitting has yet to rebound. Year-to-date total values are down more than one third and home-permitting continues to contract. On the positive side, Iron County's first quarter gross taxable sales are up 4 percent from last year.

Click here for Iron County's Economic Snapshot.

Kane County--Kane County's employment performance during the recovery has proved rather erratic. It was one of the first counties in Utah to show job expansion, but lost employment ground as 2010 came to close. Now, the county started first quarter 2011 with a moderate improvement. Between March 2010 and March 2011, Kane County added more than 50 new jobs for a year-to-year growth rate of 2.0 percent. Job growth proved strongest in the leisure/hospitality services industry with some help from "other services," retail trade, and even construction. However, not all industries shared in the employment joy. Private education/health/social services shed a notable number of jobs as did government and financial activities.

At 8.1 percent, the county's jobless rate remains somewhat higher than the statewide average. However, unemployment has eased slightly and initial claims for unemployment insurance have stabilized at low level.

Unlike many counties, Kane County actually showed an increase in construction permitting activity. Total permit values are up 8 percent for the first four months of the year and home permits increased by 50 percent. On the other hand, gross taxable sales dropped by 18 percent in the first quarter of 2011.

Click here for Kane County's Current Economic Snapshot.

Washington County--Although Washington County started adding employment in the final quarter of 2010, its job-growing is slow-going. In March 2011, the county showed an employment growth rate of only 0.4 percent--representing about 200 net new jobs. However, job growth is better than job loss and the county is trending in the right direction. Believe it or not, the construction industry found itself among the job winners. In addition, manufacturing, leisure/hospitality, transportation, other services and government added notable numbers of new jobs. In a reversal of its recessionary trend, private education/health/social services (which includes residential teen treatment centers) showed a significant decline in jobs. However, most industries continued to improve during the first quarter of the year.

Washington County's jobless rate of 9.5 percent in May still registers higher than both state and national averages. However, it has slowly declined since mid-2009. Moreover, initial claims for unemployment insurance are registering far lower than in the previous two years--another indicator that the labor market is on the mend.

While home-permitting showed improvement during 2010, the number of home permits issued during the first fourth months of 2011 have dropped significantly. Overall permit values are down as well. On the bright side, the county showed a 4-percent increase in gross taxable sales in the first quarter of 2011--the first gain in more than a year.

Click here for Washington County's Current Economic Snapshot.