Wednesday, April 6, 2011

A quick economic update for Southwest Utah

(Click to enlarge.)
We've just finished tabulating preliminary job counts for the fourth quarter of 2010 and wanted to share. After all, the change in a county's job ranks as the best indicator of economic well-being. (I know humans like to focus on the negative--unemployment rates; but job growth, or the lack thereof, is the best economic indicator.)

In Southwest Utah, there's good news and bad news. First, the good news. Three counties are now showing job growth--including the most populous county in the region--Washington County. The bad news? Both Kane and Iron counties experienced a net year-to-year decline in employment in the last month of the year. But, let me briefly cover the employment experience of each county.

Beaver County
Between December 2009 and December 2010, Beaver County's nonfarm jobs grew by 1 percent. However, that figure masks some pretty hefty employment changes--wind farm construction jobs came, went, and returned. At year-end Beaver County's employment picture was dominated by two industries. A mine closure resulted a huge job decline in the mining industry and a large increase in leisure/hospitality jobs kept employment totals afloat. Other industries experienced relatively minor gains and even more minor losses. Beaver County Economic Snapshot

Garfield County
Garfield County has rebounded from the recession with a vengeance. Year-over job growth reached almost 9 percent in December 2010. That means there are 155 jobs today in Garfield County than there were a year ago. It should come as no surprise that most of the employment expansion for this tourism-dependent county occurred in the leisure/hospitality industry. This industry also got by with a little help from its friend construction. Yes, Garfield County is bucking the odds with increased construction employment. Garfield County Economic Snapshot

Iron County
While nationally, the recent recovery has been misnamed a jobless recovery (how can it be jobless when we're adding jobs?), Iron County's current economic situation certainly deserves the label. Iron County's job losses hit their worst point in mid-2009, but the county continues to show employment declines hovering between 2 and 3 percent. For the past year, employment expansion has proven elusive. As of December 2010, jobs were down 2.7 percent from the previous year. Recently construction and retail trade have taken the hardest hits, but employment is down pretty much across the board. Only mining and the public sector showed any significant gains. Iron County Economic Snapshot

Kane County
Kane County ranked among the rarefied few to experience job growth through most of 2010. However, at year-end, the county's job numbers took a decided tumble--down 5 percent. Who is to blame? Primarily, the leisure/hospitality industry and private educational services. Now, the decline in leisure/hospitality positions may just be the result of some unusual seasonality. But until, early 2011 figures are available, we won't know for sure. Kane County Economic Snapshot

Washington County
After several years of employment losses, Washington County is starting to experience job growth--and it occurred even earlier than the survey numbers indicated. By November, job counts had finally shown improvement. True, the December to December growth rate measured only 0.3 percent. However, growth is growth and the county is certainly trending in the right direction.

While several key industries--construction, manufacturing, and retail trade--continued to show declines, the losses are evaporating. For example, construction employment is down only 1 percent from the previous December--a far cry from the 30 percent losses experienced during the worst of the recession.

Fueling the current labor market expansion are professional/business services (which include many "temp" and employee leasing firms--the typical first gains in a recovery), private education/health/social services and the public sector. But, look for most industry level losses to end in 2011. Washington County Economic Snapshot

Oh, and for those of you who want to know about unemployment rates. . .For all counties in Southwest Utah, jobless rates are trending down.

There's more. . .to keep up on current economic indicators, check out our "Economic Snapshots." Just click on the link at the end of each county paragraph.