Unemployment Insurance Claims Data Shed Light on the Local Economic Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Southwest Utah

By Lecia Parks Langston, Senior Economist

“You have power over your mind — not outside events. Realize this, and you will find strength.” Marcus Aurelius

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, businesses lost revenues and workers lost jobs. But because of the time it takes to collect and collate data, economists have been left without much information to quantify the economic impacts at the local level.

But there is one ray of data illumination. Claims for unemployment benefits are promptly available and provide information about a large cross section of the economy. This post will outline what light unemployment claims data sheds on the state of southwest Utah’s economy.

While not all workers are protected by unemployment insurance laws, roughly 95% of jobs are covered. This makes claims data an exceptional source of information about the economy. Not included under unemployment insurance laws are most self-employed workers, about half of agricultural employment, unpaid family workers, railroad personnel (covered separately) and many nonprofit organizations (such as churches). Also, some out-of-work employees may not have worked a sufficient work history to qualify for unemployment insurance benefits, but may file anyway. Fortunately, in this time of economic distress, the social safety nets of the unemployment insurance program, special national COVID-19 funding and social programs are working together to keep workers’ income and well-being stable.

Unemployment claimants and the unemployed; they aren’t the same

Also, keep in mind that, in addition to individuals drawing unemployment benefits, the unemployment rate includes those entering and re-entering the workforce and noncovered groups without current employment. This means the number of “unemployed” will be greater than the number of claimants. In “normal” times, only about 40% of the “unemployed” are claiming benefits. The generally reported unemployment rate also has a work-search requirement. If you haven’t made any minimal attempts to find work, you aren’t counted as “unemployed.”

Watch this Space

While this analysis won’t be updated regularly, new data will be added to the data visualization on a weekly basis allowing readers to check back for the latest information.

An Unprecedented Event

Not surprisingly, first-time claims for unemployment benefits soared in Utah and across the nation as the pandemic swept across the country. This increase is unprecedented since the creation of unemployment insurance coverage during the Great Depression. Week 12 (beginning March 16) marks the start of this unparalleled surge in claims. On a positive note, while new claims for unemployment benefits have skyrocketed in Utah, the state currently shows one of the lowest claims rates in the nation.

For most southwest Utah counties, initial claims peaked during week 13 (starting March 23) and have since tapered downward. During the peak week 13, initial claims filed totaled 2,364 in southwest Utah. In all of 2019, only 3,803 claims were filed in the region. By week 19, claims measured considerably lower but continued to run substantially greater than in previous years — even during the Great Recession.

Here’s another example of the tremendous flood of new claims. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, counties in southwest Utah averaged a total of 82 first-time claims per week. This time period in early 2020 included seasonally high claims weeks in January. In the weeks after, an average of 1,343 claims were filed for an almost unbelievable increase of 1,538%.

Who took the hardest hit?

Counties with a high-dependence on tourism have felt the greatest economic and employment shocks. In Garfield County, with the highest share of tourism-related employment in the state, roughly 20% of individuals covered by unemployment insurance have filed a claim — twice the rate of the state (10%) Moreover, many seasonal Garfield County workers were already drawing unemployment before the pandemic hit. In contrast, in Beaver County, only 4% of covered workers filed a claim during the pandemic. Iron (9%), Kane (10%) and Washington (11%) also felt the repercussions of upswing in furloughs and job loss.

Tourism and COVID-19

Especially in the early stages of the pandemic, this is a story of tourism-dependent industries. Almost 23% of post-COVID-19 initial claims filed in southwest Utah represented workers previously employed in accommodations and food services. In addition, the true effect of the pandemic on this industry is masked by a large number of claims classified as industry “unknown” in the early days of the claims flood. Undoubtedly, many of these claims would rightfully be classified in accommodations/food services if the appropriate information were available.

Other high-claims industries included retail trade, healthcare/social assistance (reflecting the cessation of elective procedures and visits) and administrative support/waste management/remediation (the home to temporary employment agencies). Many of these high-claim industries reflect their high share of total employment in general. In addition, they often serve the public face to face or encountered damage due to the decline in demand for travel.

The Industry Flow

While most of the high-claim industries felt the pain of the pandemic early on, other industries surged in later weeks. As the economic effects of other closures worked their way through the economy both manufacturing and transportation/warehousing proved relative latecomers to the layoffs in southwest Utah.

The High and the Low

Although accommodations/food services has generated the largest number of southwest Utah initial claims in the COVID-19 pandemic time period, in percentage terms, other industries have actually suffered more. For example, in the extremely small management of companies industry, roughly 50% of workers have filed for claims. The administrative support/waste management/remediation industries, which includes temporary employment firms, shows a first-time claims rate of 27%.

Because of its job-to-job nature, the construction industry typically accounts for 15-20% of first-time claims. However, although construction’s new claims have also increased, they have increased at a much slower-than-average rate. After the COVID-19 pandemic hit, construction contributed only about 5% of first-time claims. Ease of social-distancing and good weather have helped construction maintain employment levels. New claims measured just 3% of covered construction employment.

Only a portion of agricultural employment is covered by unemployment insurance laws. However, as companies work to keep America fed, agribusiness has laid off few employees. In Iron and Beaver counties, covered agriculture plays a notable role in the economy. However, only 1% of southwest Utah’s covered agricultural workers have filed a claim during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Public administration, educational services (including public and higher education), finance/insurance and utilities have also managed to keep a higher percentage of their workforces employed.

County by County

Beaver County

• Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, Beaver County averaged 2 unemployment claims per week compared to 16 new claims afterward, an increase of 834%.
• Because of its relatively small share of hard-hit tourism-dependent employment and higher-than-average share of lightly-hit covered agricultural employment, Beaver County has shown a smaller increase in claims due to the pandemic.
• New claims as a percent of covered employment measured just 4% — one of the lowest rates in the state.
• As in many other areas, accommodations/food services produced the highest number of new claims, with few claims in healthcare/social assistance.
• Unusually, arts/entertainment/recreation also contributed a high number of new claims.
• Beaver County accounted for 2% of the Southwest Region’s new claims prior to the pandemic, but only 1% of claims afterward.

Garfield County

• Despite having the highest percentage of leisure/hospitality employment in the state, Garfield County ranked third for the percentage of initial claims filed as a share of covered employment (20%) after the COVID-19 pandemic hit. This is likely because many seasonal workers were already drawing unemployment insurance payments when the pandemic began.
• Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, Garfield County averaged six first-time claims per week, compared to an average of 53 claims per week afterwards. This change represents an increase of 856%.
• Nearly 70% of claims were filed from workers furloughed from the accommodations/food service industry. A large share of claims from the “unknown” industry category most likely originated from this industry as well.
• Apart from retail trade, other industries contributed few new claims.
• Seasonal claims from the colder months meant Garfield County’s initial claims actually accounted for a larger share (6%) of the Southwest Region’s figure before the pandemic than after (4%).

Iron County

• In the weeks before the COVID-19 pandemic, Iron County averaged 16 initial claims per week. After the pandemic hit, an average of 236 claims were filed per week, marking an increase of 1,390%.
• In Iron County, first-time claims during the pandemic measured 9% of covered employment. That places Iron County in the bottom half of a county-by-county ranking.
• As in many counties, Iron County’s accommodations/food service industry accounted for the highest number of new claims during the COVID-19 slowdown.
• Healthcare/social assistance and retail trade ranked second and third respectively for new claims.
• First-time claims from the manufacturing spiked in late April.

Kane County

• Despite having a high percentage of tourism-related employment, the county showed a middle-of-the-pack ranking for new claims as a share of covered employment (10%). As in Garfield County, many seasonal employees were already drawing unemployment benefits prior to the pandemic.
• Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, Kane County averaged a nominal two first-time claims per week compared with 44 claims after the pandemic struck. This increase of 1,708% ranked as the largest in the region.
• Accommodations/food services, retail trade and arts/entertainment/recreation generated the highest number of initial claims during the pandemic.
• Roughly 44% of Kane County’s post-directive initial claims originated in the accommodations/food services industry.
• Kane County’s regional share of new claims held steady before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Washington County

• Not surprisingly, the county with the largest employment in southwest Utah also generated the largest number of COVID-19-related first-time claims. However, its share of claims increased from 69% prior to the pandemic to 74% during.
• Before the COVID-19 pandemic, an average of 56 initial claims were being filed in Washington County compared to an average of 994 claims in the following weeks. The pre-to-post-pandemic increase registered 1,668%
• Initial claims for unemployment benefits filed during the pandemic as a percent of covered employment measured 11%, near the middle of a ranking of all Utah counties.
• Although it has a higher-than-average share of employment in accommodations/food services industry, Washington County’s economy is more diverse than many less-populated counties in the state. This industry’s share of claims in Washington County measured only 19% compared to 69% in Garfield County and 44% in Kane County.
• Here too, accommodations/food services was the source of the largest number of new claims followed by retail trade, administration support/waste management/remediation (which includes temporary employment agencies) and healthcare/social assistance.
• Claims originating from both manufacturing and transportation surged towards the end of the pandemic time period.

Health Insurance In the Time of COVID-19

U.S. Census Bureau releases new 2018 Small Area Health Insurance Estimates

By Lecia Parks Langston, Senior Economist

 

“Americans want jobs. They want affordable health insurance. They want an education.” John McCain

 

 

As the world hunkers down under the effects of a pandemic, the need for health insurance coverage becomes even more apparent than usual. Just how many Utahns are covered by health insurance? Who are the uninsured? Data just released by the U.S. Census Bureau (2018 Small Area Health Insurance Estimates (SAHIE)) provides enlightenment on healthcare coverage in the under-65-year-old population. Additional demographic information is available from the American Community Survey, rounding out our understanding of the insured and uninsured in Utah.

 

Small Area Estimates

The SAHIE estimates cover the population under 65 years of age. Of course, virtually all citizens 65 and older are covered by government-provided Medicare benefits. Because these estimates date back to 2008, two years before the signing of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), they suggest the how the ACA has changed the health-insurance landscape in Utah.

 

 

Compared to other counties across the United States, Utah’s counties, for the most part, had mid-level to high levels of insured individuals in 2018 (the most recent data available). National regions of high coverage include northern eastern states and the west coast. Texas seems to have the highest uninsured levels with a vast number of counties experiencing uninsured rates of greater than 20%. Most Utah counties have uninsured shares below 15%.

 

In 2018, Morgan, Davis, Daggett and Emery counties showed the highest insured rates in Utah. In contrast, San Juan, Duchesne, Uintah, Piute and Garfield experienced the lowest rates of health insurance coverage.

That was then, this is now

The number and share of Utahns covered by health insurance have certainly improved in the past 10 years. In 2008, roughly 83.7% of the under-65 population was insured compared to about 89.6% in 2018, an increase of nearly 6 percentage points. In terms of individuals, that increase represents a gain of 427,000 insured Utahns.

 

However, coverage appears to have peaked in 2016 at 90.3% and has since retrenched. The repeal of ACA’s individual mandate and price increases, due to the elimination of cost-sharing reductions to payers selling individual plans, likely contributed to the recent slight decline in Utah coverage. However, the state’s Medicaid expansion, effective in 2020, should help bump up insured rates.

Less-populated counties, with initial low insured rates, experienced the strongest gains in insured shares. Daggett, Rich, Grand, Kane and San Juan counties displayed gains of roughly 10-points or higher. While all counties showed an improvement in the insured share of the under-65-year population, Salt Lake, Carbon, Summit and Millard counties experienced the smallest gains.

 

Highlights from the American Community Survey (2014-2018)

• Roughly 58% of Utahns (of all ages) are insured in full or in part by employer-provided plans. Only 9% directly purchase their entire insurance coverage from a private provider. In total, nearly 70% of the state’s citizens have private coverage.
• In total, public plans (Medicare and Medicaid) cover roughly 12% of Utah’s population. About 7% of the population is covered by Medicaid with another 3% covered by just Medicare. Roughly 1% of Utahns have coverage under both Medicare and Medicaid.
• Those with a combination of public and private coverage account for another 9% of Utah’s population. That group includes 4% of Utahns who carry Medicare plus a supplemental source of private insurance. On the other hand, 10% have no healthcare insurance at all.
• The very young and the very old are most likely to carry health insurance. Thanks to Medicare, individuals 65 years and older are the most likely to be covered (99%). On the other end of the spectrum, children under 6 years old displayed a coverage rate of 94%, with 6-18 year olds not far behind (92%).
• Individuals between the ages of 26 and 34 are the least likely to have health insurance. Only 84% are covered in Utah.
• By gender, females (91%) are just slightly more likely than males (89%) to maintain health insurance. This may be partially due to the dominance of women in the highly-covered 65-years-and-older group.
• Education shows a high correlation with health insurance coverage. Persons with a bachelor’s degree or higher show the highest coverage rate — 96%. On the other end of the scale, individuals who did not graduate from high school maintained an insured rate of just 68%.
• Not surprisingly, of all labor force statuses, the unemployed are least likely to have health insurance (65%). Interestingly, those not in the labor force (which would include the retired), display an insured rate just slightly lower than the employed. In addition, based on work experience, individuals working full-time, year-round are the most likely group be insured.
• Household income is also a good predictor of health insurance coverage. Those with the highest incomes ($100,000 and over) have the highest coverage rates (95%). In contrast, those with the lowest incomes (under $25,000) have the lowest coverage rates (81%). a
• Latino and Native Americans show the lowest rates of any major ethnic/racial groups. Rates for both sets measure just 73%. White, non-Latino Utahns maintain the highest health insurance coverage shares.
• Only 56% of noncitizens have health insurance in Utah compared to 92 percent of Utahns born in the United States.

The U.S. Census Bureau Releases County Population Estimates for 2019

Next year, actual counts from the decennial census will be available

By Lecia Parks Langston, Senior Economist
“Any time you have population growth, there are business opportunities.” Roland Dorson

 

Hopefully, all Utahns are taking a break from COVID-19 concerns to respond (by phone, online or by mail) to their 2020 Census questionnaires (https://2020census.gov/). Since the Census results help determine how billions of dollars in federal funding are spent, accurate counts are important in order for Utah’s communities to get their “fair share.”

 

Because the actual counts are not yet available, the U.S. Census Bureau has just released the last set of population estimates for the decade. What do they show?

• Iron County took the lead in population growth rates for 2019 — up by 4.1%. Following close behind was its neighbor, Washington County, with a growth rate of 3.5%.
• Other fast-growing areas included counties at the edge of urban spread, such as Juab, Tooele and Wasatch.
• Although Piute County saw an increase of only about 30 individuals, its small base population also resulted in a strong percentage increase (2.9%).
• Utah County showed the highest percentage increase (2.4%) of the big-four Wasatch Front counties.
• Estimates for both San Juan and Daggett counties suggested a decline in population, while Duchesne County’s population appeared to hold steady.
• Utah County experienced the largest numeric gain in population — nearly 15,000 residents, followed by Salt Lake County (up about 12,000) and Washington County (up nearly 6,000).
• Utah and Washington counties finished neck-and-neck in the race for net in-migration. Utah County’s net in-migration measured 5,200 compared to 5,100 for Washington County.
• Several counties displayed net out-migration. Most notable on the list were Duchesne and San Juan counties. Daggett, Emery and Summit counties showed lesser out-migration estimates.
• For its size, Utah County shows a relatively high number of births and a low number of deaths, placing its natural increase not far behind population-dense Salt Lake County.
• Although Washington and Cache counties showed roughly equivalent numbers of births, deaths in Washington County measured much higher.
• In 2019, Emery County experienced its first (albeit small) population growth in more than a decade.
• Morgan County’s 2019 growth rate slipped below the state average for the first time this decade.
• Wayne County saw its best population growth (1.5%) of the past 10 years in 2019.
• Between 2010 and 2019, Wasatch County was the third fastest growing county in the nation. Washington County (St George, UT MSA) was the fifth fastest growing metropolitan area in the United States between 2010 and 2019. Its relatively small size contributes mathematically to a high growth rate. The Provo-Orem, UT MSA ranked ninth.

These aren’t the only estimates in town. The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah has assembled the Utah Population Committee (UPC) to reinstitute the population-estimates work previously conducted by the Utah Population Estimates Committee (UPEC). These estimates can be found here.
U.S. Census Bureau estimates use the same methodology in producing population figures for every county in the nation. Therefore, for nationwide comparisons, U.S. Census Bureau estimates may have the advantage. On the other hand, UPC population estimates have the benefit of local-analyst expertise and additional data sources.

Kanab City Council approves 72 unit apartment project

The Kanab City Council approved a subdivision which for the purpose of building a 4.46 acre, six-building, 72-unit Vermillion Lofts Apartment complex in Kanab. Southern Utah News

Best Friends Roadhouse and Mercantile to cater to guests and their four-legged friends

The new Best Friends Roadhouse and Mercantile in Kanab on Highway 89/300 West provides pet-friendly lodging. Best Friends founders and property developers, construction crew and staff have provided a facility where all buildings and lodging areas are pet-friendly. There is also a large pet park, complete with a water feature, a grooming area for cleaning up your pet and a stage on the property that will host some entertainment, as well as occasional animal education programs. At Best Friends they have four cabins, eight cottages and six RV sites. Southern Utah News

Best Friends Animal Society to open pet-friendly hotel in support of mission

The hope is that the roadhouse will provide a place for volunteers and adopters to stay while they visit the sanctuary, as well as inform visitors about their mission regarding kill shelters. Last year the sanctuary saw around 33,000 guests and over 10,000 volunteers.


The roadhouse will be located on the renovated property of a former Four Seasons hotel on Highway 89 and Center Street in Kanab, just 5 miles south of the Best Friends sanctuary, and will include a number of amenities to make the stay enjoyable for pets. They first began construction in December and expect to start taking reservations at the beginning of August, opening their doors by September 1. St. George News

Where Have All the Young Workers Gone?

Young workers in Utah and the U.S. comprise a smaller share of the labor force

By Lecia Parks Langston, Senior Economist

 

"We should be trying to reach the young workers because that’s when you’re most idealistic and have least fear."  John Lennon

 

One of the most striking labor market changes of the last decade and a half is the declining participation of teenagers in the labor force. Nationally, teenage participation topped out at almost 59 percent in the late 1970s, and today stands at roughly 36 percent. While the trend isn’t as pronounced in Utah as it is nationwide; here, too, young people are less likely to be employed or looking for work than they were as the century began. The reasons for this phenomena are not clear. However, more after-school activities and increased borrowing to pay for post-secondary education (rather than earning while learning) may factor into this decline.

 

On the other hand, some characteristics of youth workers have changed little. Utah teens still show some of the highest labor force participation rates in the nation. Also, young people continue to show the highest unemployment rates, the lowest wages and the top turnover rates of any age group.

 

Kanab City Planning Commission passes Best Friends building project

The Kanab City Planning Commission voted to approve a building project for Best Friends Animal Society, changing the zoning from Rural Agricultural (RA) to Residential Single-Family (R-1-8 and R-1-15). Best Friends was denied on two other attempts when they tried to get the zoning changed to Residential Multi-Family. It will now go before the Kanab City Council for approval.


Instead of the clustering of the 45 homes around the center of the property, as was proposed in the initial request, this zone allows for two to four homes per acre, according to the Kanab City General Plan. Potentially this 30 acre subdivision could see anywhere from 60 to 120 houses in it, depending on how Best Friends wants to develop it. Battista said it’s possible that not all of the lots would be owned by Best Friends in the end. Southern Utah News

Best Friends seeks zoning change for 39 new homes

Kane County’s largest employer, Best Friends Animal Society, has been challenged with hiring and retaining employees due to limited and often unaffordable housing. Their proposed project will consist of 39 two-bedroom homes and 6 three-bedroom homes and accommodate up to 84 Best Friends employees. The homes are not tiny homes, and all exceed the minimum size established in city ordinances for single family dwellings of 720 sf. The two bedroom and three-bedroom homes are 989 sf and 1,477 sf respectively. Southern Utah News

Kane County Hospital set to begin $15 million expansion

Expansion plans are underway for the Kane County Hospital. Renovations will include an expanded emergency room with patient waiting rooms, improved security and expanded pharmacy. There will also be an expanded operating room recovery area, as well as an expanded day and dining room in the long-term care facility. The hospital will not be increasing patient beds since it was determined the number was already adequate. The total project will cost $15,000,000. The hospital has set aside $5,000,000 from the one percent rural hospital sales tax toward the project, and has a CIB loan for the remaining $10,000,000. Southern Utah News

New GDP figures will add to the local economic-analysis tool box

New GDP figures will add to the local economic-analysis tool box

By Lecia Parks Langston, Senior Economist

“We will find neither national purpose nor personal satisfaction in a mere continuation of economic progress, in an endless amassing of worldly goods. We cannot measure national spirit by the Dow Jones Average, nor national achievement by the Gross National Product.”  Robert Kennedy

As a regional economist, I’m routinely asked for gross domestic product (GDP) figures for Utah’s counties. After all, nationally, GDP is routinely tracked as an economic indicator. “Sorry,” I say, “the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) doesn’t produce GDP statistics for counties (unless they are a metropolitan statistical area). But data-lovers, “the times, they are a-changin’.”

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis has just released proto-type county GDP statistics for 2012 to 2015. You can explore the data in the visualization that follows.

Yes, the proto-type information is dated. However, data-users can take a first-look at the series and assist BEA by providing feedback and comments on the prototype data via e-mail at gdpbycounty@bea.gov. Official statistics are scheduled for release in December 2019.

When the official data is released, this new data will add to our ability to analyze Utah’s local economies.

What do the proto-type figures reveal? Here are a few highlights:

In 2015, eight Utah counties experienced a decline in GDP following a trend similar to 2013 and 2014.

• Less-populated counties were most likely to experience a bout of declining GDP.
• Daggett County, one of Utah’s smallest in both geographic size and population, showed the highest GDP growth rate in 2015 with Washington County showing the highest rate of expansion among more-populated counties.
• It wasn’t uncommon for Utah counties to experience at least one year of GDP contraction between 2013 and 2015.
• Not surprisingly, the vast majority of GDP is generated along the Wasatch Front.

Kanab City Council earmarks $16 million to fix storm water woes ... from new rate hike

Kanab City plans to address floodwater mitigation in the coming months by first redoing the retention pond north of Jacob Hamblin Park, followed by projects in the Cedar Heights subdivision, a Swapp Drive retention basin, further work at the mouth of Tom’s Canyon, Stansfield Dr. modifications up to the water tank and completion of the storm drains along 200 North, among possibly others.

The cost of all projected projects is estimated at $16 million, although this is somewhat speculative at this time pending contractual bids for those not being completed by the city alone. Grant money is being explored, and money from the new storm water mitigation charge to city residents will be utilized to fund these projects. Southern Utah News

Kane County Hospital planning on $10 million expansion and remodel

Kane County hospital is planning an expansion and remodel. It has received a $10M bond through the Community Impact Board. This bond will be repaid using the 1 percent Rural Hospital Sales Tax revenues received through the county every year. Southern Utah News

State homeless report shows increase in ‘unsheltered’ individuals in Southern Utah

An annual overnight count of Utah’s homeless population in January shows the amount of individuals experiencing homelessness increased in Washington County and areas in and around Iron County, according to a report released last week. The overnight count of the state’s homeless, known as the point-in-time count, was conducted Jan. 24. The results were published Aug. 8 in a report from the Utah Department of Workforce Services.

Washington County experienced an increase of 98 unsheltered individuals this year over last, making for a total of 154, according to the report. The total number of both sheltered and unsheltered homeless individuals in Washington County is 245, according to the report, which is up from 2017’s count of 133.

For the area of Iron County – which also includes counts from Beaver, Garfield and Kane counties – the total amount of homeless individuals was 42, with 10 counted as unsheltered. This is an increase from 29 persons and no reported unsheltered in 2017. St George News

Kanab Airport gets FAA grant

The Kanab Municipal Airport has been awarded more than $2.4 million from the Federal Aviation Administration to rehabilitate its apron and runway. Airports receive a certain amount of Airport Improvement Program funding each year based on activity levels and project needs. Deseret News

Independent living senior village coming to Kanab

SageHill Partners announced a public meeting will be held May 19 at the Kanab City Library to launch what could be Utah’s first SageHill Living Village. It is inspired by creative aging ideals that have the power to change the way people age in rural America. The goal is to downsize the footprint and upsize the community to reflect shared values, interests, and purpose. The village will offer single-level living for 14-24 households nestled around a large common house to create the atmosphere of an old-fashioned village. SageHill is researching possible sites in the Kanab city limits. If they quickly secure a site and a group of committed residents, they will be able to break ground in early 2019, if not sooner. The Spectrum

Utah's Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates

Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for all Utah counties have been posted online here.

Each month, these rates are posted the Monday following the Unemployment Rate Update for Utah.

For more information about seasonally adjusted rates, read a DWS analysis here.

Next update scheduled for March 26th.

Ten Years Later. . .

The Recovery Following the Great Recession

By Mark Knold, Supervising Economist and Lecia Parks Langston, Senior Economist

“The term 'business cycle' is imprecise. Economic fluctuations affect everyone, not just businesses, and they are, unlike astral cycles, anything but regular.” Kevin Hassett

Overview

December 2017 marked 10 years since the Great Recession first cast its long shadow across the American economy. The recession officially lasted 18 months, but its consequences can still be seen across the country without having to look very hard. We have not had another recession since.

Utah was hit hard at the time, losing a larger share of jobs than the national average; but, we were fortunate to be one of the most resilient states in terms of economic rebound. There are plenty of states where the Great Recession continues to weigh upon them. Employment levels in 14 states are still not back to their pre-recession peak, and another 29 states have only grown 5.0 percent or less. As the working-age population has grown by more than 5.0 percent, the job gains nationally have not been enough to fully employ working-age labor.

Utah lost 7.0 percent employment during the recession. Since that low, employment has recovered by 18 percent. That is the second best rebound in the nation. From Utah’s pre-recession employment peak to now, Utah’s employment has increased by 9.5 percent, third best in the nation. Yet, Utah’s job growth has not been enough to absorb all of the labor force growth during that time. Utah’s unemployment rate is low, but the percent of the working-age population in the labor force is several percentage points below the pre-recession norm — telling us that potential labor is still not as fully engaged with the job market as before the recession.

As a whole, Utah has had a notable recession rebound, but those gains have not been shared equally across all regions. Just like the national profile, some areas have bounced back strong while others are still lagging behind. The state’s metropolitan areas have grown well, but many of Utah’s rural areas cannot say the same. Nine counties have employment levels below their pre-recession peaks.

In this issue of Local Insights, we profile Utah’s regional and county economies in light of the 10-year span since the Great Recession.

Southwest Utah and the Recovery

The five counties in Southwest Utah — Beaver, Garfield, Iron, Kane and Washington — each experienced the Great Recession and the ensuing recovery in their own way. Unfortunately, this corner of Utah generally took longer to pull out of the downturn than did Utah or the nation.

Washington County

Washington County was an uninhibited participant in the housing bubble that was the precursor to the Great Recession. Not surprisingly, its crash was longer and deeper than other less-involved counties. For almost three years prior to the economic collapse, Washington County showed 10-percent job growth as construction industry employment exploded. In this case, what went up definitely came down. The worst job-loss month in Utah registered a 6.2-percent decline (year-to-year), while the nation’s worst comparable loss measured 5.0 percent. Washington County’s loss imitated its prerecession gains at 9.7 percent. Moreover, Washington County just kept losing jobs at this rate while the state and the nation bounced back.

Federal regulators hit pause on Lake Powell Pipeline, at Utah’s request

At Utah’s request, federal regulators are halting their review of the proposed Lake Powell Pipeline to address jurisdictional questions that state leaders say have left them confused over which federal agency, or agencies, need to approve certain parts of the project. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission agreed this week to put its review of the project on hold, but did not immediately address the state’s questions regarding jurisdiction.

State water officials have spent more than $30 million over the past decade readying its proposals for the pipeline, which would carry water some 140 miles out of Lake Powell and across parts of Utah and Arizona to communities in Washington and Kane counties. The Spectrum

Desert Air Heath and Cooling comes to Kanab

Desert Air, a new Kanab business, is a full service heating and cooling company, with over 20 years’ experience in residential, commercial, new construction, and industrial services. They also do sheet metal fabrication and custom duct design. Southern Utah News