Thursday, March 29, 2012

Where Did they Come From? Where Did They Go? New County-to-County Migration Data released

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The U.S. Census Bureau has just released estimates from the American Community Survey for county-to-county migration. This is the first publication of migration data at the county level since 2000 Census. These figures represent data collected between 2005 and 2009. The survey asked respondents where they lived one year prior to the survey.

In other words, this data release tracks the destination of people who moved and also their previous location. Since there are a vast number of counties in the U.S. (3,009, but who's counting?), we're talking serious data. (No instantaneous downloading of files here.) Data geeks can access the files, by clicking here.

Because I'm a self-interested economist, I chose to put together in- and out-migration visualizations for my own resident county--Washington County. (You'll find it after the jump.) However, if you're interested in similar charts/maps for other Utah counties, just e-mail me (lecialangston@utah.gov) or post your request as a comment.

Moving to Washington County
Washington County has experienced remarkable growth over the past several decades. There's always an abundance of speculation about where the in-migrating population moved from with Southern California usually pegged as the prime in-migration source. However, these new figures refute the conventional wisdom. At least in the 2005-2009 time period (which includes both the boom and the bust), most movers to Washington County moved from other counties in Utah.


In fact, movers to Washington County were more likely to originate from Utah, Nevada, and Arizona than California. Salt Lake and Utah counties proved the most likely county point of origin for those moving to Washington County. Clark County was the next most like source of movers. Maricopa County (Phoenix area) in Arizona gave Washington County more movers than Los Angeles County (the largest source for in-migrants from California). Note that you can see actual migration estimates selecting the "County" tab or by hovering over the county in the maps below.



Moving Out
Although those of us who live here may find it hard to believe, people actually do move out of Washington County. Of course, the collapse of the housing bubble meant many people left the area in search of employment. Between 2005-2009, out-migration primarily headed to other Utah climes. In this case, Utah County received the largest number of those leaving Washington County; Salt Lake County came in second and Iron County third. On the state level, after Utah, out-migration headed to California, Texas, Arizona and Nevada in that order. In other words, California ranks as the top destination for out-of-state Washington County movers, but as the third most likely source of out-of-state movers. Not quite the vision of the conventional wisdom.