Thursday, October 4, 2012

Brief Washington County Economic Update

“We’re back.” After suffering a long and hard recession, Washington County is once again showing strong economic expansion. Residents of Washington County may have noticed a spate of new “help wanted” signs in show windows. This anecdotal evidence certainly supports the story told by the data. Newly available preliminary job figures show Washington County with the best jobs performance of any Utah metropolitan area. With its second quarter of job growth at or below 5 percent, Washington County has certainly moved out of recovery into expansion.

Here’s a brief rundown of the available economic indicators:

  • The best indicator of local economic well-being—the year-to-year change in nonfarm jobs—shows Washington County continuing its strong early 2012 performance. Between June 2011 and June 2012, the county had added 2,550 net new jobs compared to a year earlier. This 5.4-percent increase places Washington County at its long-term average for employment growth.
  • Economists prefer this continued moderate expansion. Much stronger jobs growth could suggest the economy is once again getting “too hot.”
  • Washington County’s employment growth measures notably higher than either the Utah (3.6 percent) or U.S. (1.3 percent) rates of expansion for the June-to-June period.
  • All major industries added jobs between June 2011 and June 2012. This positive performance by all sectors represents a broad-based, and therefore, more sustainable expansion.
  • Professional/business services, leisure/hospitality services, retail trade, construction (yes, construction) private education/health/social services, the public sector (includes public education) and manufacturing each contributed more than 200 jobs each.
  • Two industries experienced double-digit growth rates--wholesale trade and professional/business services. Four other industries—mining, construction, manufacturing, and other services—exhibited expansion rates of 7 to 8 percent.
  • Unemployment rates continue to trend downward. Washington County’s August 2012 jobless rate of 6.8 percent is nestled in between the national average (8.1 percent) and the statewide rate (5.6 percent).
  • Residential construction is picking up. Home permits are up 21 percent for the first half of the year. On the other hand, always-sporadic nonresidential construction permit values are down from last year which pulled total permit values down by a negligible (for the world of construction permitting)—about 5 percent.
  • According to the federal Housing Price Index, Washington County’s home prices begThe National Association of Homebuilders/Wells Fargo Bank Housing Affordability Index suggests a median income family can now afford 76 percent of homes in the area compared to less than 20 percent in 2006.
  • In second quarter 2012, gross taxable sales showed the sixth straight quarter of year-to-year gains. The 7-percent second quarter increase is just one more signal of a healthy Washington County economy. New car and truck sales are also up year-to-year. an appreciating in mid-2011. In the second quarter of 2012, home prices were up 3.8 percent compared with the previous year.