2019 City Population Estimates Now Available

The U.S. Census Bureau Releases County Population Estimates for 2019

Next year, actual counts from the decennial census will be available

By Lecia Parks Langston, Senior Economist
“Any time you have population growth, there are business opportunities.” Roland Dorson

 

Hopefully, all Utahns are taking a break from COVID-19 concerns to respond (by phone, online or by mail) to their 2020 Census questionnaires (https://2020census.gov/). Since the Census results help determine how billions of dollars in federal funding are spent, accurate counts are important in order for Utah’s communities to get their “fair share.”

 

Because the actual counts are not yet available, the U.S. Census Bureau has just released the last set of population estimates for the decade. What do they show?

• Iron County took the lead in population growth rates for 2019 — up by 4.1%. Following close behind was its neighbor, Washington County, with a growth rate of 3.5%.
• Other fast-growing areas included counties at the edge of urban spread, such as Juab, Tooele and Wasatch.
• Although Piute County saw an increase of only about 30 individuals, its small base population also resulted in a strong percentage increase (2.9%).
• Utah County showed the highest percentage increase (2.4%) of the big-four Wasatch Front counties.
• Estimates for both San Juan and Daggett counties suggested a decline in population, while Duchesne County’s population appeared to hold steady.
• Utah County experienced the largest numeric gain in population — nearly 15,000 residents, followed by Salt Lake County (up about 12,000) and Washington County (up nearly 6,000).
• Utah and Washington counties finished neck-and-neck in the race for net in-migration. Utah County’s net in-migration measured 5,200 compared to 5,100 for Washington County.
• Several counties displayed net out-migration. Most notable on the list were Duchesne and San Juan counties. Daggett, Emery and Summit counties showed lesser out-migration estimates.
• For its size, Utah County shows a relatively high number of births and a low number of deaths, placing its natural increase not far behind population-dense Salt Lake County.
• Although Washington and Cache counties showed roughly equivalent numbers of births, deaths in Washington County measured much higher.
• In 2019, Emery County experienced its first (albeit small) population growth in more than a decade.
• Morgan County’s 2019 growth rate slipped below the state average for the first time this decade.
• Wayne County saw its best population growth (1.5%) of the past 10 years in 2019.
• Between 2010 and 2019, Wasatch County was the third fastest growing county in the nation. Washington County (St George, UT MSA) was the fifth fastest growing metropolitan area in the United States between 2010 and 2019. Its relatively small size contributes mathematically to a high growth rate. The Provo-Orem, UT MSA ranked ninth.

These aren’t the only estimates in town. The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah has assembled the Utah Population Committee (UPC) to reinstitute the population-estimates work previously conducted by the Utah Population Estimates Committee (UPEC). These estimates can be found here.
U.S. Census Bureau estimates use the same methodology in producing population figures for every county in the nation. Therefore, for nationwide comparisons, U.S. Census Bureau estimates may have the advantage. On the other hand, UPC population estimates have the benefit of local-analyst expertise and additional data sources.

Updated Data Visualizations

The Utah Department of Workforce Services has recently updated the following data visualizations on our website. Click on the titles to scope out the new data:

• Intergenerational Poverty County Data
• Intergenerational Poverty Annual Report
• Interstate Migration
• Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures) 
• Utah Nonemployer Data by County
• Consumer Price Index and Cost of Living Comparisons 
• Real Gross Domestic Product for Utah and Metro Areas
• Health Insurance Coverage by County
• Department of Workforce Services Job Opening by Occupation
• Occupational Rankings
• Occupational Wages by Region 

Ten Years Later. . .

The Recovery Following the Great Recession

By Mark Knold, Supervising Economist and Lecia Parks Langston, Senior Economist

“The term 'business cycle' is imprecise. Economic fluctuations affect everyone, not just businesses, and they are, unlike astral cycles, anything but regular.” Kevin Hassett

Overview

December 2017 marked 10 years since the Great Recession first cast its long shadow across the American economy. The recession officially lasted 18 months, but its consequences can still be seen across the country without having to look very hard. We have not had another recession since.

Utah was hit hard at the time, losing a larger share of jobs than the national average; but, we were fortunate to be one of the most resilient states in terms of economic rebound. There are plenty of states where the Great Recession continues to weigh upon them. Employment levels in 14 states are still not back to their pre-recession peak, and another 29 states have only grown 5.0 percent or less. As the working-age population has grown by more than 5.0 percent, the job gains nationally have not been enough to fully employ working-age labor.

Utah lost 7.0 percent employment during the recession. Since that low, employment has recovered by 18 percent. That is the second best rebound in the nation. From Utah’s pre-recession employment peak to now, Utah’s employment has increased by 9.5 percent, third best in the nation. Yet, Utah’s job growth has not been enough to absorb all of the labor force growth during that time. Utah’s unemployment rate is low, but the percent of the working-age population in the labor force is several percentage points below the pre-recession norm — telling us that potential labor is still not as fully engaged with the job market as before the recession.

As a whole, Utah has had a notable recession rebound, but those gains have not been shared equally across all regions. Just like the national profile, some areas have bounced back strong while others are still lagging behind. The state’s metropolitan areas have grown well, but many of Utah’s rural areas cannot say the same. Nine counties have employment levels below their pre-recession peaks.

In this issue of Local Insights, we profile Utah’s regional and county economies in light of the 10-year span since the Great Recession.

Southwest Utah and the Recovery

The five counties in Southwest Utah — Beaver, Garfield, Iron, Kane and Washington — each experienced the Great Recession and the ensuing recovery in their own way. Unfortunately, this corner of Utah generally took longer to pull out of the downturn than did Utah or the nation.

Washington County

Washington County was an uninhibited participant in the housing bubble that was the precursor to the Great Recession. Not surprisingly, its crash was longer and deeper than other less-involved counties. For almost three years prior to the economic collapse, Washington County showed 10-percent job growth as construction industry employment exploded. In this case, what went up definitely came down. The worst job-loss month in Utah registered a 6.2-percent decline (year-to-year), while the nation’s worst comparable loss measured 5.0 percent. Washington County’s loss imitated its prerecession gains at 9.7 percent. Moreover, Washington County just kept losing jobs at this rate while the state and the nation bounced back.

Is Your Town Growing?

U.S. Census Bureau releases 2016 City Population Estimates

By Lecia Parks Langston, Senior Economist

“A city is more than a place in space, it is a drama in time” –Patrick Geddes

Most of Utah’s cities and towns grew in 2017, according to population estimates recently released by the U.S. Census Bureau. Lehi even ranked 11th among the nation’s fastest-growing large cities. However, not all Utah’s cities and towns experienced growth.

Use the visualization and bullet points below to explore population trends for individual townships.

• The old Geneva Steel Mill site continues to be fertile ground for population expansion. Vineyard was once again the fastest growing city in Utah. However its rate of growth has slowed dramatically since 2015. In addition, Vineyard remains relatively small in size.

• Herriman added the highest number of new residents of any city in Utah (4,550) followed by Orem, Lehi and South Jordan. All showed higher population gains than Salt Lake City — Utah’s most populous city. Herriman also showed the second-fastest rate of expansion in 2016.

• St. George was the only city outside the Wasatch Front to increase its population by more than 2,000 residents.

• The top four population-gaining cities in Utah are all located in southern Salt Lake County or northern Utah County, as the metropolitan population continued to spread outward from the large city centers. Fastest-growing larger communities also tended to be located near the Salt Lake County/Utah County border.

• Due to the nature of percent-change mathematics, several small towns (such as Monticello, Mantua, Francis, Interlaken and Hideout) showed high growth rates although their new-resident counts measured relatively low.

• The Census Bureau estimates that most of the cities and towns showing population declines were located in the Uintah Basin, Carbon County and Emery County. Declines in resource-based employment have spearheaded these population declines.

• In addition, Millard, Piute, Garfield and Wayne counties displayed a significant number of contracting townships.

• Salt Lake County remains home to five of the 10 largest cities in the state. Utah County accounts for another two in the top 10. St. George is the only city in the top-10 ranking located outside the Wasatch Front.

Census Bureau Tool Provides Labor-Force Insight for Utah

By Mark Knold and Lecia Langston

Across the United States, jobs are quantified through each state’s unemployment insurance program. Those programs provide the potential for laid-off workers to receive unemployment benefits — the goal being to bridge the gap between workers’ lost jobs and their next jobs. An eligible recipient’s weekly benefit amount is based upon their earnings from recent work. This begs the question, how does Utah’s unemployment insurance program know how much an individual recently earned while working?

That answer is supplied by all businesses that hire workers, as they must report their employees and pay as mandated by the unemployment insurance laws. Companies identify their individual workers and those workers’ monetary earnings for a calendar quarter. As businesses are identified by their industrial activity and geographic location, it is through the unemployment insurance program that aggregate employment counts by industry and location are calculated.

Yet each state’s profiling of individuals is quite minimal in the unemployment insurance program. The U.S. Census Bureau can bring more light to the overall labor force by supplementing said information with gender, age, race/ethnicity and educational attainment (imputed from American Community Survey responses) for Utah’s labor force.

The Census Bureau packages this information through their Local Employment Dynamics program and makes available said data on its website. Here at the Department of Workforce Services, we recently downloaded and packaged Utah-specific data from said website and summarized it in the attached visualization.

Various data “tabs” are available, presenting Utah’s economy from different angles, ranging from industry shares within the economy to the age-group distributions of the labor force, to gender and race distributions. These labor variables can be viewed for the state as a whole, or by each individual county.

Health Insurance: Who’s covered in Utah?

Census Bureau Estimates Provide Answers about Utah Health Insurance Coverage

By Lecia Parks Langston, Senior Economist

“Most Americans want health insurance.” Jacob Lew

The U.S. Census Bureau just published its Small Area Health Insurance Estimates (SAHIE) for counties and states while the national discussion on health care laws receives renewed attention. Is this a coincidence? Yes, but a timely one. This post examines how health insurance coverage for Utahns has changed and also the demographics of who has coverage and who does not.

Tracking Utahns Under 65 Years of Age

Small Area Health Insurance Estimates cover the population under 65 years of age. Of course, virtually all residents 65 and older are covered by government-provided Medicare. Because the estimates date back to 2008, two years before the signing of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), the available figures provide an indication of the effect of the ACA on health insurance coverage in Utah and its counties.

More Utahns have Health Insurance

Between 2008 and 2015, the number of Utahns under 65 years old covered by health insurance increased by 284,000. Not only did the actual covered increase, but the share of non-senior population with health insurance also gained ground expanding from less than 84 percent to more than 88 percent — an increase of 4.7 percentage points.

Only Millard County experienced a very slight 0.3 percentage point decline in health insurance coverage although the actual number of persons covered increased by 113. Daggett, Rich, Kane and Grand counties showed the highest growth in under-65 coverage; each showed increases of at least 9 percentage points.

In 2015, counties in northern Utah generally showed the highest level of non-senior health insurance coverage. In Morgan, Davis, Box Elder, Tooele and Cache counties, health insurance rates top 90 percent. On the other end of the scale, rural counties in central and southern Utah display the lowest coverage. In San Juan, Millard, Duchesne and Wayne counties, health insurance rates for those under 65 measured 83 percent or less.

Those under 19 saw the greatest gains. Coverage rates for these young people increased from 87 percent in 2008 to 93 percent in 2015. Utah males experienced a larger gain in coverage between 2008 and 2015 (5 percentage points) than did females (4 percentage points), although females were more likely than men to carry health insurance in both years. Health insurance rates for those with the lowest incomes showed the most improvement (10.4 percentage points). However, their coverage shares remain roughly 10 points below average.

Wait, There’s More…

What's Your County's Population?

U.S. Census Bureau releases 2016 county population estimates.

By Lecia Parks Langston, Senior Economist

“In a region with a growing population, if you’re doing nothing, you’re losing ground.” Stewart Udall

The Census Bureau just released population estimates for counties and metropolitan statistical areas across the United States. Yes, it was just a few months ago that Utah made headlines as the fastest-growing state in the nation. So, it should come as no surprise that several Utah sub-areas also appeared on the fastest-growing lists.

San Juan County ranked as the fastest growing county in the nation with a 2016 growth estimate of 7.6 percent. Keep in mind that less than 17,000 people live in the county. In other words, a small numeric change in this less-populated county can result in a large percent change.

In addition, three Utah regions ranked among the top 20 fastest-growing Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the country. The St. George, Utah MSA (sixth), Provo-Orem, Utah MSA (seventh) and the Logan, Utah-Idaho MSA (20th) all attained top-20 status. See additional information on the estimates after the “jump.”

Pick a Number, Any Number

Because the Census Bureau actually counts the population only once every decade, these figures are estimates. Plus, they aren’t the only estimates in town. The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute has recently assembled the Utah Population Committee (UPC) to reinstitute the population-estimates work previously conducted by the Utah Population Estimates Committee (UPEC). The estimates can be found here.

Census Bureau estimates use the same methodology in producing population figures for every county in the nation. Therefore, for nationwide comparisons, Census Bureau estimates may have the advantage. On the other hand, UPC population estimates have the benefit of local-analyst expertise and additional data sources.

Better, Faster, Smarter . . .Check out our new website design

Information is the treasure of the current age. The instant access to information since the advent of the Internet has transformed societies in ways that thousands of years prior had not. Information can lead to knowledge, and — with increased knowledge — better efficiencies and way of life. If information is vital, then the presentation of information has also risen to a prominent level.

With this, the Utah Department of Workforce Services has made some organizational improvements to its economic webpages. Various economic data categories are not mutually exclusive, but we made an effort to compartmentalize economic data for a better organizational display and navigation. We also added a new feature area that taps into various national data elements and measurements from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), the database of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED’s added value is national — and Utah — economic indicators. More on FRED’s contribution below.

Depending on the subject, economic data can be categorized as either broad or specific. For example, the demographic makeup of an area and how that impacts an economic structure is a broad-subject approach. Conversely, a current monthly snapshot of the Utah economy, its job growth and unemployment rate is a more specific observation. Our economic webpage has four “portals” through which to “categorize” and search for information. One portal is broad, while the other three are more specific in nature.

Topic Portals

The monthly employment profile just mentioned is a specific topic and gets its own “portal,” entitled Employment Update. Here, the most current Utah economic performance can be explored and summarized. The information found here is what often gets cited in the local news media in reference to the current Utah job performance and unemployment rate.

The second specific “portal” is labeled Local Insights. This is a quarterly profile of the Utah economy down to a county level. Each county is summarized with its own economic performance, including job growth, unemployment rate, housing starts, taxable sales and other profile variables. The common theme here is a county-specific approach.

The third specific “portal” is Reports and Analysis. Workforce Services’ economic forte is the labor market. Things over and above the everyday reporting on the labor market are presented here. Sometimes we do special economic studies, other times we will report on specific economic groups within the labor force, like women or veterans. Anything we do that is not an often repeated or ongoing report are grouped here.

The final “portal,” and possibly the one that will be most used, is labeled Economic Data. The core of our data collection and analysis is concentrated here. Employment data, occupational data, wage information and demographic profiles are just some of the major economic themes found in this area.

FRED's on site

As mentioned earlier, we have added an economic indicator area tapping into FRED, which is a massive compilation of economic data from various sources — primarily government statistical agencies, but also some nongovernmental organizations. Workforce Services economists have gone through the list and selected a handful of the most useful data series for gauging the performance of Utah’s macro economy and gaining insights into expected trends. Utah functions within the national economy, so the national economic indicators profiled here are intended to also be guiding influences on the Utah economy. These indicators include composite indexes; a recession probability indicator; leading indicators, such as construction permits and the yield curve; coincident indicators, such as real GDP and employment; and price indicators, such as the consumer price index, regional housing prices, and oil and gas prices. Each chart has a detailed description of what the data represent and how they may be useful.

Keeping relevant with the fast-changing pace of the Internet and data presentation is our goal at Workforce Services. We hope these changes help to better present our broad package of economic data offerings.

Show Me the Economy

New Occupational Projections Available

Mark Knold, Supervising Economist
 
 “The government knows everything about everyone.” 

 Fortunately, that statement is not true. Yet society still looks to the government to provide answers to comprehensive and complex questions that have their foundation within individual decisions and activities. One subject frequently directed toward the government is individual-level information about the economy — particularly, what occupations are in demand, what occupations pay well and have lucrative outlooks, and ultimately, what occupation(s) should I build my career upon?

It takes the accumulation of a wide array of individual information to answer these questions. Employers provide the foundation information about the occupations they employ. Jobs are held by individuals, but employers provide the profile information about the job itself, not any particular individual.

Since society desires to profile such a broad spectrum of the economy — occupational profiles and the occupational distribution within the economy — only government is in the unique position to collect, analyze and provide answers for said desire. Yet, no government program or regulatory agency mandates any comprehensive occupational reporting from individuals or businesses. Therefore, government attempts to fill the void with an ongoing, robust and voluntary survey of employers — a survey where employers are asked to provide details about their various occupations, including descriptions, quantities, wages/salaries and location. Through this survey emerges an occupational portrait of an economy.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) structures and funds the survey, yet the individual states conduct the survey. Under BLS administration, all states use the same methodology; therefore, occupational profiles are comparable across states.

Through this survey, analysts discover how industries are populated with various occupations. Accountant is an occupation, yet accountants can be found across many different industries. Other occupations may be more exclusive to certain industries; for example, doctors are largely found only in the healthcare industry. One of the survey’s products is that industries can be profiled with their general mix of occupations. This is called an industry’s occupational staffing pattern.

This brings us back to the original questions: what occupations are in demand, what occupations pay well and have lucrative outlooks, and ultimately, what occupation(s) should I build my career upon? The foundation is to make informed forecasts about how industries will expand/contract over the next 10 years. By applying existing occupational staffing patterns to each industry’s projected change, a trained economic analyst can then make an extrapolation about how occupations will correspondingly increase/decrease. Knowledgeable analyst judgment further refines the occupational expectations, such as knowing an occupation will grow faster than in the past, with the result being a set of occupational projections that accumulate to profile a state or regional economy.

A new set of occupational projections are done every two years to keep the information fresh even though economies do not change dramatically in short order. Because of slow change, updated occupational projects generally continue the overall message of preceding occupational projections. But economies do modify with time, and therefore, subtle changes will arise with each new set of occupational projections.

Utah’s most recent occupational projections are found here: http://www.jobs.utah.gov/wi/pubs/outlooks/state/index.html. These projections look forward to the year 2024.

The occupational profile is structured from the general to the detailed, mimicking the structure of a family tree. First, broad occupational categories are defined, such as management or healthcare occupations; then, subcategories are defined; and finally, individual occupations are defined. Individual occupations are the heart of the occupational projections. But overall patterns and characteristics do emerge when observing the broader categories.

While a Utah statewide profile leads the way, Utah’s local economies are not homogenous; therefore, nine Utah subregions are also profiled. Due to confidentiality restraints and statistical reliability, the amount of occupations available will diminish the smaller a subregion; but, occupations comprising the backbone of a regional economy will be available.

Washington County and the Southwest Region 

Lecia Parks Langston, Senior Economist

Due to its status as a Metropolitan Statistical Area, Washington County gets its own set of survey-supported occupational projections. We also prepare a job outlook as a group for the remaining four counties in Southwest Utah (Beaver, Garfield, Iron and Kane).

Washington County

Washington County takes top honors as the projected fastest-growing area in the state. Between 2014 and 2024, Washington County employment is expected to expand at an annual average rate of 3.9 percent, notably higher than the statewide average of 2.7 percent. That expansion should result in almost 3,600 job openings a year. Growth plays a major role in future openings with 62 percent occurring from business expansion. Replacement needs constitute the remaining 38 percent of openings. Statewide, only 54 percent of new openings are expected to arise from growth.

With its large employment base and high replacement needs, food preparation and serving occupations are projected to create the highest number of Washington County openings. Likewise, the large employment groups of office and administrative support (e.g., clerical) and sales occupations should also generate large numbers of positions.

On the other hand, the smaller computer/mathematical occupational group, with an annual average growth rate of 5.7 percent, is expected to show the most rapid expansion. Nevertheless, food preparation and serving jobs aren’t far behind, with a 5.2-percent annual rate of increase. In addition, both the healthcare practitioners/technical (4.9 percent) and healthcare support (4.7 percent) groups should see strong expansion as well.

Not surprisingly, occupational groups with current low levels of employment are also expected to add fewer jobs to the economy than their much large peers. In Washington County, architecture/engineering and legal occupations will supply the smallest number of openings. The slowest growth rates are expected for architecture/engineering and sales. However, even these occupational groups show faster growth rates than the statewide average. Moreover, openings for sales occupations are high due to the large size of the occupational group and its high replacement status.

Because many jobs in the Washington County economy currently require little education and many of these positions also have high replacement needs, jobs requiring a high school education or less are expected to account for more than 70 percent of total openings between 2014 and 2024. However, in general, jobs requiring more education are expected to expand at a faster-than-average rate.

The individual occupations adding the highest number of openings usually belong to the major occupational groups providing the highest number of openings. In Washington County, fast food workers, retail salespersons and waiters/waitresses are expected to add the highest number of new openings. These are typically lower-paying positions. However, not all high-opening occupations in Washington County are considered low paying. General/operations managers and registered nurses are among the occupations with the highest volume of projected openings.

In an attempt to help provide career guidance, the Department of Workforce Services has attached star ratings to most occupations. These ratings take into account both employment outlook (openings and growth rate) and wages. Among occupations with the best five-star rating, 70 percent of projected openings typically require a bachelor’s degree or higher. For more information about star ratings and detailed occupational information, see the links in the data visualization.

 

The Other Southwest Counties 

In contrast to Washington County, the remaining Southwest Utah counties are projected to grow at a slower annual average rate of 2.0 percent, notably below the statewide average of 2.7 percent. Slower projected expansion is not uncommon among Utah’s less-populated regions. Southwest Utah should generate almost 1,200 job openings each year between 2014 and 2024. Replacement needs are expected to outpace growth somewhat, providing 55 percent of total openings.

In a pattern similar to Washington County, food preparation/serving, office/administrative support (e.g., clerical) and sales occupations are expected to provide the largest number of openings over the 10-year period. These occupational groups also maintain the highest levels of current employment.

However, when it comes to growth rates, the four Southwest Utah counties diverge from Washington County. In Southwest Utah, the fastest growing occupational group is expected to be construction and extraction, with an annual average expansion rate of 3.7 percent. Nevertheless, both healthcare practitioners and healthcare support (2.6 percent and 3.0 percent respectively) show up among the fastest growing occupational clusters. Iron County’s heavy manufacturing presence is also reflected in strong (2.6 percent) expansion in production occupations.

Occupational groups projected to provide few openings in Southwest Utah include computer/mathematical and architecture/engineering occupations. Life/physical/social science positions are expected to decline slightly (although replacement needs will still generate openings). Despite contributing many job openings, sales and administrative support occupations are expected to show some of the lowest growth rates along with protective services.

Like the statewide profile, jobs with the highest current employment tend to require less education. Their large employment base coupled with high replacement needs means roughly 82 percent of employment openings between 2014 and 2024 in Southwest Utah are expected to require a high school degree or less. While growth rates by educational requirements fall in a fairly tight range, jobs typically requiring a postsecondary non-degree award should show the fastest growth while providing relatively few openings.

As in Washington County, individual occupations in Southwest Utah projected to generate the largest number of openings are generally categorized in the occupational groups with the highest current employment. Cashiers, fast food workers, retail salespersons and waiters/waitresses are expected to show the highest number of openings in Southwest Utah. Of course, many of these positions pay lower-than-average wages. However, general/operations managers and carpenters will also provide a high level of openings.

In Southwest Utah, five-star jobs with the best employment outlook and wages run the gamut from supervisors and managers to truck drivers and accountants. For more information about star ratings detailed occupational projections, remember to check out the links in the data visualization.

Washington County Economic Update

Washington County started 2016 with a slightly better employment performance than the previous year. While most of 2015 produced year-to-year growth rates near the 5-percent mark, first quarter 2016 rates popped up to the 6-percent mark. While 6 percent expansion is not far off normal for Utah’s Dixie, higher job growth could signal an overheated economy. As in most Utah counties, Washington County’s has seen its jobless rate edge up in recent months. Strong job growth and limited unemployment insurance claims activity suggest that labor force entrants and re-entrants are temporarily inflating the unemployed totals. Overall, construction permitting is running above average and gross taxable sales are increasing nicely. All indicators continue to point to a currently healthy economy.

• Between March 2015 and March 2016, Washington County generated 3,400 new nonfarm jobs for a year-to-year growth rate of 6 percent. 
• Construction took the lead in job creation followed closely by healthcare/social services and retail trade. 
• Professional/business services also added a substantial number of new positions. 
• All major industries showed job gains, although manufacturing employment barely held steady. 
• As in many Utah counties, joblessness has ticked upwards in recent months, but it remains relatively low at 4.1 percent in June 2016. 
• New claims for unemployment insurance followed a seasonal pattern in the first half of 2016 and provide no signs of large lay-offs. 
• Retail trade, professional/business services and leisure/hospitality services (all with seasonal or temporary characteristics) have generated the largest numbers of first-time claims so far this year. 
• Washington County’s average monthly nonfarm wage continues to gradually increase. 
• Between the first quarters of 2015 and 2016, the average wage improved by roughly 3 percent. 
• Residential construction permitting started the year in fine shape. 
• Home permits are up almost 40 percent for first quarter 2016 compared to last year. 
• New nonresidential permitting remained essentially flat. 
• Gross taxable sales began its sixth straight year of expansion. 
• Between the first quarters of 2015 and 2016, Washington County sales jumped by 11 percent. 
• Motor vehicle sales, building material/garden stores, general merchandise stores and accommodations/food services were the big sales winners of first quarter 2016.

Kane County Economic Update

The first few months of 2016 found Kane County generating a second straight quarter of exceptional job growth. This expansion is not a one-industry wonder with many sectors joining the job creation party. However, despite employment expansion and the lack of unseasonal unemployment insurance claims activity, joblessness has edged up slightly. This conundrum suggests that workers are entering and re-entering the labor market creating a short-term swell in the jobless rate. Gross taxable sales certainly fell in line with employment showing robust expansion. When taken in concert, the county’s indicators point to a strong, well-functioning economy.

• Between March 2015 and March 2016, Kane County added 250 new jobs for a robust growth rate of 8.5 percent. 
• A spurt in new accommodations jobs helped push up leisure/hospitality services jobs up by 11 percent. 
• Construction, manufacturing, retail trade and financial activities also contributed to the overall improvement. 
• No Kane County industry experienced a significant employment loss in first quarter 2016. As in many Utah counties, joblessness in Kane County has crept up in recent months. 
• Nevertheless, at 4.3 percent (June 2016), the county’s unemployment rate remains low. 
• First-time claims for unemployment insurance seem to be following a seasonal pattern with no cyclical disturbances. 
• The seasonal leisure/hospitality services industry has generated the highest number of new claims so far in 2016. 
• The area’s average monthly nonfarm wage showed little year-to-year improvement in the first quarter of 2016. 
• However, wages have trended upward since the recession and should continue to do so. 
• Current construction data for Kane County is not available. 
• First quarter 2016 sales outpaced first quarter 2015 sales by about 10 percent. 
• Expansion in accommodations sales proved a major mover and shaker in sales expansion.

Iron County Economic Update

Continuing a year-long upward trend, Iron County’s employment expansion torqued up a notch in the first quarter of 2016. Most industries contributed to the robust expansion although there are a few notable exceptions. As in most Utah counties, joblessness has ticked up in recent months. However, the county’s rate remains below the national average. First-time claims for unemployment insurance have trended slightly higher than usual in the last few months contributing to overall level of joblessness. Construction permitting seems to be off to a slow start in 2016. However, it’s early days yet and activity will likely improve. Gross taxable sales increased nicely in first quarter contributing to a healthy economy with only small pockets of disquiet.

• Between March 2015 and March 2016, Iron County’s employment base added almost 1,000 new jobs, up nearly 6 percent. 
• Most industries joined in the overall expansion with retail trade, accommodations/food services, government, professional/business services and construction showing strong employment contributions. 
• On the down side, both mining and information displayed significant industry-level job contraction. 
• Joblessness has increased in recent months as layoffs took their toll. In June 2016, the county’s unemployment rate measured 4.7 percent, almost the highest level since 2013. 
• First-time claims for unemployment insurance have measured somewhat higher than average in recent months. 
• Construction, retail trade and professional/business services (all with a seasonal/temporary component) have generated the largest number of new claims so far this year. 
• Iron County’s average monthly nonfarm wage has trended upward for an extended period of time. 
• Yet, in the first quarter of 2016, wage gains stalled. A quarter does not a trend make and figures may improve in upcoming months. 
• Construction permitting appeared somewhat slower in the first three months of 2016 when compared to the same time period in 2015. 
• However, data for most of the year is not available and permitting in 2015 was the strongest since the recession. 
• Gross taxable sales showed a healthy 13-percent increase between the first quarters of 2015 and 2016. 
• Retail sales showed particularly strong gains with motor vehicle, electronics and general merchandise stores leading the pack.

Garfield County Economic Update

Garfield County began 2016 with a mixed performance on the jobs front. Although the first two months of 2016 showed year-over declines in employment, March ended the quarter with a healthy 4-percent increase. Whether job growth or job contraction will win out in 2016 is not yet clear. Joblessness does appear to be on the upswing after edging down for most of 2015. In addition, the county’s always high unemployment rate measures more than double the state average. On the other hand, first-time claims for unemployment insurance show no signs of nonseasonal activity. Gross taxable sales rounded out this diverse set of economic indicators with a strong first-quarter increase.

• While, overall, Garfield County’s first quarter 2016 nonfarm employment dipped by 0.5 percent in comparison to the previous year, March ended the quarter on the upswing. 
• Between March 2015 and March 2016, the county added 70 new jobs for a year-to-year gain of nearly 4 percent. 
• A notable employment gain in leisure/hospitality services employment was canceled out by a notable job loss in the public sector. 
• Other industries showing job gains included manufacturing, retail trade, healthcare/social services and information. 
• Garfield County’s already high jobless rate has been trending up since late 2015. 
• In June 2016, the county’s unemployment rate registered 8.8 percent. 
• The seasonal nature of the Garfield County’s labor market results in a perennially high jobless rate. 
• The lack of significant claims activity suggests the unemployment uptick is the result of workers entering or re-entering the labor market. 
• So far in 2016, first-time claims have followed a seasonal pattern with no sign of cyclical distress. 
• Garfield County’s average monthly nonfarm wage continued to slowly edge upward. 
• However, the first quarter 2016 figure showed a barely noticeable year-to-year gain. 
• Current construction data is not available for Garfield County. 
• Between the first quarters of 2015 and 2016, Garfield County’s gross taxable sales increased by a robust 18 percent. 
• Accommodations and retail trade experienced the strongest sales gains.

Beaver County Economic Update

Following strong-to-moderate employment growth in 2015, Beaver County’s labor market expansion stalled in early 2016 as several industries (in particular mining) took job hits. In addition, unemployment insurance claims data activity suggests the county suffered outright employment contraction in second quarter. These job losses will most likely continue to bump up Beaver County’s currently low unemployment rate. So far in 2016, construction activity appears relatively low especially compared with 2015 which was a banner year for both nonresidential and residential building. Strong gains in gross taxable sales provide the best current economic news. Overall, the county’s economy will be tested as 2016 continues.

Between March 2015 and March 2016, Beaver County’s nonfarm jobs increased but just barely. 

Nonagricultural employment expanded a mere 17 jobs for a year-over gain of less than 1 percent. 

Not included in the nonfarm totals are an additional 43 positions in covered agriculture. 

Employment declines in mining, transportation/warehousing and professional business services dragged down overall growth. 

On the nonfarm side, only retail trade created a significant number of new jobs. 

On the horizon, construction job counts should improve in upcoming months as the large solar projects progress. 

However, based on claims activity, layoffs in mining will continue to temper the numbers. 

Beaver County's unemployment rate shot up to 5.5 percent in June 2016 and reflects significant layoffs in mining. 

First-time claims for unemployment insurance skyrocketed in May and June primarily due to those mining layoffs. 

With its project-to-project nature, construction has also generated a substantial amount of unemployment insurance claims thus far in 2016. 

Increases in Beaver County’s average monthly wage decelerated in recent months although continuing to trend upward. 

Beaver County’s first quarter 2016 average nonfarm wage of roughly $2,700 measured noticeably below the statewide average ($3,600). 

In the first few months of 2016, Beaver County construction permitting seems off to a slow start. 

Few dwelling-unit permits have been issued and new nonresidential values pale in comparison to the huge solar projects authorized in 2015. 

Between the first quarters of 2015 and 2016, Beaver County’s gross taxable sales increased by a whopping 20 percent. 

Strong sales at building material/garden stores coupled with substantial business investment expenditures generated a large portion of the first-quarter gain.

Most Southern Utah cities show population growth in 2015

The U.S. Census Bureau releases 2015 population estimates for cities 

By Lecia Parks Langston, Senior Economist 

“I come from a small town whose population never changed. Each time a woman got pregnant, someone left town.” Michael Prichard

The U.S. Census Bureau just released 2015 population estimates for cities and towns. In the visualization below, you can check out the estimates for your own Utah hometown. Use the “Cities by County” tab to easily locate a particular township.

While most cities in Utah expanded during 2015, they presented a wide variety of growth experiences.

• The old Geneva Steel Mill site has proved fertile ground for population growth. Vineyard, Utah, which is located on the spot, grew by a whopping 418 percent in just one year. However, Vineyard’s population remains relatively low in the overall scheme of things with about 3,200 residents.

• South Jordan added the largest number of persons (roughly 3,800) of any Utah city or town. South Jordan also ranked fifth in the nation for 2015 population growth (among cities with populations of 50,000 or more).

• The top five population-gaining cities in Utah are all located in southern Salt Lake County or northern Utah County as the metropolitan population continues to spread outward from the large city centers. Fastest-growing larger communities also tended to be located near the Salt Lake/Utah County border.

• Due to the nature of percent changes, several small towns (Ophir, Ballard, Francis, Wallsburg) showed high growth rates although their new-resident counts measured relatively low.

• Census estimates suggest a number of towns lost population in 2015. Every town in Carbon, Emery and Wayne counties showed contraction. In addition, Kanab and Beaver City experienced notable population declines.

• Salt Lake County remains home to five of the 10 largest cities in the state. Utah County accounts for another two in the top 10. St. George is the only city in the top-10 ranking located outside the Wasatch Front.

Kane County Economic Update

In the midst of the vacillating job growth rate common to smaller counties hides a Kane County economic success story. The monthly growth rate may be rather erratic; but overall, the county is creating jobs at a moderate rate and has done so for the past two years. While not all industries share in the economic expansion, the result is still positive. Joblessness appears to have bottomed out at a relatively low level and first-time claims for unemployment insurance show an ordinary seasonal pattern. Also, sales showed a healthy rate of growth. Only volatile construction permitting dropped from last year.

• Kane County created almost 100 net new jobs between September 2014 and September 2015, expanding the nonfarm jobs total by about 3 percent. 
• The tourism-driven leisure and hospitality services industry took top honors for job creation and was aided by professional/business services, other services and financial activities. 
• Slight employment losses occurred in manufacturing, wholesale trade and healthcare/social services. 
• In December 2015, Kane County’s jobless rate measured 4.1 percent, down slightly from the previous year. 
• Consistent job growth and a virtually unchanging jobless rate suggest the county’s labor market is in balance, creating enough new jobs for entrants and re-entrants. 
• Initial claims for unemployment insurance produced a typical seasonal increase as 2015 came to a close. 
• In 2015, the seasonal leisure and hospitality services industry generated the largest number of new unemployment insurance claims. 
• Average monthly wages for nonfarm employment continue to slowly increase. Compared to the third quarter of 2014, the average monthly wage in third quarter 2015 increased by more than 4 percent. 
• A slowdown in construction permitting in the final months of the year resulted in a decline in total values. 
• Overall, permit values are down 23 percent when the first 11 months of 2014 and 2015 are compared. 
• The number of new home permits dipped by 65 percent. 
• Kane County’s gross taxable sales increased by a vigorous 7 percent between the third quarters of 2014 and 2015. 
• Strong gains in retail trade coupled with improved sales at eating/drinking establishments pushed up the third quarter totals.

Iron County Economic Update

With another quarter of moderate, broad-based job growth under its belt, Iron County appears firmly entrenched in economic expansion. As in much of Utah, unemployment rates flattened out in 2015 and remain relatively low. Plus, first-time claims for unemployment insurance finished 2015 with fewer seasonal claims than usual. Solar projects kept nonresidential permits humming, while the county permitted the highest number of new homes in eight years. The icing on the economic cake was a strong sales performance in the third quarter. Iron County’s indicators point to an economy running on all cylinders.

• Iron County added more than 630 new jobs between September 2014 and September 2015, for a year-to-year increase of nearly 4 percent. 
• Most industries shared in the employment expansion. Mining proved a notable exception. 
• Retail trade, leisure/hospitality services, manufacturing, government and construction each contributed 100 positions or more to the overall expansion. 
• In December 2015, Iron County’s unemployment rate measured 4.0 percent, down 0.4 points from December a year ago. 
• Moderate job growth coupled with a plateauing unemployment rate suggests the labor market is in balance, creating enough jobs for new and returning entrants. 
• First-time claims for unemployment insurance continued at a low seasonal level as autumn progressed. 
• Average wages continue to improve. Between the third quarters of 2014 and 2015, the county’s average nonfarm wage increased by 4.6 percent. 
• Total construction permit values showed a robust 150-percent increase for the first 11 months of the year. 
• Solar-project permitting accounted for much of this gain. However, new home permits are up nearly 40 percent and marked the best year since before the recession. 
• Healthy gains in gross taxable sales produced a 9-percent expansion between the third quarters of 2014 and 2015. 
• In the past four years, the county has only one quarter of declining sales. 
• Sales at general merchandise stores and building materials/gardening stores proved particularly strong.

Garfield County Economic Update

After a one-month flirtation with job loss, Garfield County bounced back to moderate job growth in the third quarter of 2015. Indeed, the county seems on track to turn in its best labor market performance in five years. On the other hand, not all industries shared in the economic good news. Joblessness edged up slightly at year-end and remains high due to the seasonal nature of the county’s economy. Peaking in late 2015, first-time claims for unemployment insurance reflect this seasonality. Strong gains in gross taxable sales rounded out this improving picture of Garfield County’s economy.

• Between September 2014 and September 2015, Garfield County added 73 jobs for a growth rate of nearly 3 percent. 
• With 100-plus new jobs, the county’s largest industry, tourism-driven leisure/hospitality services was responsible for the lion’s share of new positions. 
• Construction, professional/business services and local government all suffered notable employment losses. 
• Garfield County’s unemployment rate increased slightly during the last few months of the year. 
• In December 2015, Garfield County joblessness registered 8.9 percent, tying with Duchesne County for the highest unemployment rate in the state. 
• First-time claims for unemployment insurance are following their typical seasonal pattern, running at about the same level as the previous several years. 
• The seasonal nature of tourism means leisure and hospitality services dominates the area’s claims figures. 
• The county’s average monthly nonfarm wage continues to slowly improve. Between the third quarters of 2014 and 2015, the average wage increased by nearly 3 percent. 
• Buoyed up by a large increase in accommodation sales, Garfield County’s gross taxable sales surged by 7.3 percent, following behind a long trend of improving sales. 
• Robust sales in retail trade are also reflected in this strong stance.

Beaver County Economic Update

In the past decade, Beaver County’s economic indicators have often been subject to the comings and goings of large construction projects. While new construction jobs do play a part in the recent economic good news, strong expansion can be found throughout most of the labor market. Robust employment growth is complimented by low unemployment and first-time claims for unemployment insurance show no out-of-the-ordinary changes. Permits for several large solar projects drove construction permit values into the stratosphere and home permits have surged as well. Gross taxable sales gains remain strong, painting an overall picture of economic health in Beaver County.

• Beaver County’s nonfarm employment jumped up by almost 7 percent between September 2014 and September 2015 with the net addition of 155 jobs.
• Most industries experienced strong growth. The remaining sectors showed little change.
• Leisure/hospitality services, construction, professional business services and mining and manufacturing all added at least 20 positions each. 
• Construction employment should continue to swell in upcoming months as building of the solar projects ramps up. 
• As in many Utah counties, Beaver County joblessness has changed little over the past year and remains virtually unchanged from a year ago. 
• In December 2015, the unemployment rate measured a low 3.6 percent, certainly in the range of full-employment. 
• In the final weeks of 2015, first-time claims for unemployment insurance appear to be following a seasonal uptick. 
• Construction, leisure/hospitality services and mining generated the highest number of claims in 2015. All have seasonal components. 
• Excluding the bumps created by large construction projects, Beaver County’s average nonfarm wage has slowly trended upward. 
• What a difference a few solar construction permits make. In the first 11 months of 2015, nonresidential construction values are up almost 2,200 percent compared with the same time period in 2014. 
• Residential construction also kept up its end. Compared to 2014, permits are up 80 percent and 
• Beaver County has produced its best home-building year since 2008. Beaver County turned in another quarter of strong gross taxable sales expansion. Between the third quarters of 2014 and 2015, sales rose more than 8 percent. 
• Wholesale trade and business investment expenditures in construction, manufacturing and utilities accounted for most of the gain. Retail sales actually slipped slightly in the third quarter.